NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Aug 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W78)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 07/0737 UTC as well as several C-class
subflares throughout the past day. The sunspot group maintains
moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 9563 (N24W34) also
produced C-class subflare activity. New Region 9572 (N16E23) was
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9557 is the most likely candidate for M-class
activity and may produce an isolated major flare before it rotates
around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 166
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 165/160/155
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01