Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Sep 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
September 6, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M2/Sf flare occurred in
Region 9608 (S26E56) at 05/2233 UTC. The next largest flare of the
past day was a C8 at 06/0346 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, observations from the SOHO spacecraft suggest that
Region 9601 (N11W51) was the source. Regions 9605 (S18E12), 9607
(S15E42), and new Region 9610 (S10E71) also produced C-class
subflares. Regions 9601 and 9608 remain the largest and most
magnetically complex sunspot groups. New Region 9609 (S07W53) was
also numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Additional M-class flares are likely with Regions
9601 and 9608 the most probable producers. A chance of an isolated
major flare in these areas also exists.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 222
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  225/230/230
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.