NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. An optically uncorrelated M2 flare occurred
at 06/0525 UTC. This event also produced a Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) off of the sun's west limb as seen in LASCO imagery. This CME
should not be geoeffective. Region 9641 (S13W48) produced a C3/1f
flare at 05/2120 UTC. This event also produced a south-west oriented
CME. Again, this CME should not be geoeffective. The only other
activity of note during the period was a C3/1f flare from Region
9648 (S07E22).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with an isolated chance of an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
elevated levels but below the proton event threshold of 10 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Active
conditions are possible on the third day due to a recurrent coronal
hole and its resulting high stream impacting earth.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 180
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  170/170/175
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 181
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  008/012-008/012-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01