NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 May 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 May 06 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event

was a optically uncorrelated C2/1f flare at 06/1604 UTC.  Region

9934 (S17E08) has shown slight decay and has simplified to a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  At 06/1350 UTC a partial halo

CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery on the east limb.  Analysis of

EIT, GOES X-Ray, and H-alpha data indicate a probable backside

event.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels.  Region 9934 has lost it’s delta configuration in the

leader spot.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels.  One 3-hour period

(15-18 UTC) was at active levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Unsettled conditions

are expected for day one of the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May

Class M    35/30/30

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 May 191

Predicted   07 May-09 May  195/200/205

90 Day Mean        06 May 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  002/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  009/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/15/10

Minor storm           10/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01