NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9445 (N23W30) was the
most active of the seven spotted regions. It produced a C7/Sf flare
at 2011 UTC, the largest of the few flares occurring during the
period. The disk can be described as stable, no new regions were
assigned, and the limbs were quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of
periodic active conditions during the latter half of the interval. A
high speed stream may affect the field May 8-9.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 155
Predicted   07 May-09 May  150/145/140
90 Day Mean        06 May 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  005/008-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05