Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 March 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
March 6, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The largest event of the
day was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 06/1013 UTC. 
SOHO/LASCO data suggest an association with the most energetic phase
of a CME observed off the west limb, though not appearing
earth-directed.  Several lesser C-class events occurred throughout
the day, with three observed from Region 9368 (N25W08), which
underwent some growth in spot count and areal coverage, but without
significant change in magnetic complexity.  Region 9371 (N20W64)
exhibited similar growth, but produced only two subfaint optical
flares without notable x-ray enhancements.  Region 9370 showed some
increase in size and complexity, but has remained quiet so far,
along with the other numbered regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days, though a chance for
isolated moderate (weak M-class) activity exists principally for
Region 9368.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed
remains somewhat elevated, but recent effects from a coronal hole 
high speed stream appear to have waned over the course of the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions
possible for the next 24 hours, until coronal hole effects have
completely subsided.  Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected thereafter for the remainder of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 158
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  162/165/165
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  019/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  008/008-007/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.