NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 06 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  A C1 flare

(optically uncorrelated) was the extent of the observed flare

activity for the period.  Several minor discrete radio bursts and

multiple Type III radio sweeps comprised most of the rest of the

day’s activity.  At the beginning of the period, a 14 degree

disappearing filament was seen near S43W25 which made up the rest of

the activity for today.  Region 9845 (N17W74) remains quiescent and

showed continued gradual decay, although this region continues to

show moderate complexity.  New Regions 9862 (N06W58), and 9863

(N18W37) were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels.  Region 9845 continues to exhibit a slight possibility

of producing an isolated M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.  High

speed stream effects of a large, transequatorial, coronal hole

continues.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity

is expected to be at quiet to active levels through most of day one

due to continued coronal hole effects.  The remainder of the

forecast period should see a return to quiet to unsettled

conditions.

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar

Class M    25/25/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Mar 178

Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  185/185/190

90 Day Mean        06 Mar 219

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  010/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  014/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  012/015-012/012-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/30/20

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                35/30/25

Minor storm           15/15/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01