NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9767 (S22W17)
produced the largest flare, a C6/Sf at 06/1444 UTC as well a 3 other
minor C-class flares.  Region 9767 maintains a beta-gamma magnetic
classification but has shown slight decay in area and spot count. 
Region 9768 (S05W84) has grown to a beta-gamma magnetic class as it
rotates to the west limb.  Region 9773 (N13E36) has shown little
change since yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9767 and Region 9773 have the potential for an
M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 197
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  205/200/195
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 221
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01