Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 6, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A C3 x-ray event at 1520 UTC,
when both Regions 9302 (N19E52) and 9291 (S13W76) had Sf optical
flares, was the premier flare event of the period. Little else of
significance occurred, although another new region, 9303 (S04W47)
emerged. Currently there are twelve assigned regions visible, with
the possibility of more to come. There are reports of additional
groups coming fully into view at east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9302 and 9289 (S05W67) have potential for
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. There was an
enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous
orbit that began late on 05 January. These particles may be an
effect of a large halo CME directed away from earth seen by LASCO at
1706 UTC yesterday.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled through 09 January.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 179
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  180/175/180
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  010/012-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.