NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jan 06 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C3 x-ray event at 1520 UTC, when both Regions 9302 (N19E52) and 9291 (S13W76) had Sf optical flares, was the premier flare event of the period. Little else of significance occurred, although another new region, 9303 (S04W47) emerged. Currently there are twelve assigned regions visible, with the possibility of more to come. There are reports of additional groups coming fully into view at east limb. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9302 and 9289 (S05W67) have potential for M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. There was an enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit that began late on 05 January. These particles may be an effect of a large halo CME directed away from earth seen by LASCO at 1706 UTC yesterday. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled through 09 January. III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Jan 179 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 180/175/180 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 010/012-010/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
