NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares
occurred, including a C1/SF at 05/2321 UTC in Region 9335 (N09E28).
This area continues to grow slowly but so far has only produced
C-level activity. Region 9339 (S11E47) is the largest sunspot group
on the visible disk but does not appear magnetically complex and has
not flared in the past 24 hours. New Regions 9341 (S10E23) and 9342
(S26E56) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
conditions were observed at a number of stations during the
06/0600-0900 UTC period. Solar wind information suggest that the
Earth has been under influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream
since about 06/1700 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 170
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  175/180/180
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01