NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Dec 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Dec 06 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9727 (S21E29) produced an M1/2f event at 06/0826 UTC. This region continues to develop its magnetic complexity and retained a delta configuration. Region 9720 (S23W29) produced an C7/1f event at 06/1907 UTC. The NOAA/SXI test imagery and NOAA/GOES x-ray data indicate a possible coronal mass ejection associated with this event. The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux of 247 sfu is possibly flare enhanced and the morning flux of 231 sfu may be more representative. New Region 9731 (N24E36) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9718 (S07W38) and 9727 are both capable of producing an isolated major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 07 - 08 December. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 09 December due to the event today from Region 9720 at 06/1907 UTC. III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec Class M 80/80/80 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Dec 247 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 220 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 007/008-007/008-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 10/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05
