Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Dec 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
December 6, 2000
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The largest event was an
optically uncorrelated C7 flare at 06/1518 UTC.  Available H-alpha
imagery suggests a likely source on or just behind the west limb,
possibly Region 9242 (N20W94).  Region 9246 (S11W62) was a source of
several lesser C-class events.  Region 9254 (N10E23) exhibited some 
growth today, but without any notable activity, and new Region 9257
(N19E38) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days.  A chance of isolated
moderate activity exists for regions 9254 and 9246.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day two.  An increase to
active levels with isolated minor storming is expected for day
three, due to the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 141
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  140/140/145
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.