NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Dec 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Dec 06 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C7 flare at 06/1518 UTC. Available H-alpha imagery suggests a likely source on or just behind the west limb, possibly Region 9242 (N20W94). Region 9246 (S11W62) was a source of several lesser C-class events. Region 9254 (N10E23) exhibited some growth today, but without any notable activity, and new Region 9257 (N19E38) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days. A chance of isolated moderate activity exists for regions 9254 and 9246. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day two. An increase to active levels with isolated minor storming is expected for day three, due to the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Dec 141 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 176 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 010/010-010/010-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 10/10/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
