NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 06 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W64)
produced an M4/1N flare at 05/2224 UTC. Growth in the region has
slowed but it maintains moderate sunspot area and magnetic
complexity. Regions 9563 (N23W21), 9566 (N17W08), and 9570 (S10E61)
also generated C-class subflares. New Region 9571 (N05E78) was
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. C-class flares should continue and M-class activity is
possible in a number of active Regions, most notably 9557, 9563, and
9566.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under
the influence of disturbed solar wind conditions that included
sustained southward IMF.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 164
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug  170/175/175
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 149
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  013/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  020/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    02/02/02
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    02/02/02