Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Sep 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
September 5, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 9601 (N13W38) produced
an M6/2b flare at 05/1432Z. Moderate centimetric radio bursts
including a 770 sfu Tenflare accompanied this event. This region
was also responsible for an M3/1n flare at 04/2159Z. Region 9606
(S17E32) produced an M1/1n at 05/1913Z. New Region 9608 (S24E70) was
numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a detailed analysis of this
region, but space based imagery indicates significant complexity
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. Regions 9601 and 9608 will likely
produce C and M class flares. An isolated major flare is possible
from either region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 218
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  215/215/215
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  011/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.