NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Oct 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Multiple minor C-class flares
occurred from several regions. Regions: 9641 (S13W34), 9650
(S14E44), and 9636 (N13W82) all produced small C-class flares. Type
III radio sweeps and several discrete radio bursts made up the rest
of the day's activity. New Region 9654 (N07E06) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
M-class activity is possible from Regions 9641, 9645, and 9653.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at mid-latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, at
geosynchronous orbit, event ended at 05/0330 UTC. The proton event
peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 177
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 175/170/170
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 009/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01