NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Multiple minor C-class flares
occurred from several regions.  Regions: 9641 (S13W34), 9650
(S14E44), and 9636 (N13W82) all produced small C-class flares.  Type
III radio sweeps and several discrete radio bursts made up the rest
of the day's activity.  New Region 9654 (N07E06) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
M-class activity is possible from Regions 9641, 9645, and 9653.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at mid-latitudes.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, at
geosynchronous orbit, event ended at 05/0330 UTC.  The proton event
peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 177
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  175/170/170
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 180
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  009/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01