NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 May 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 May 05 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z

to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9934 (S17E21)

produced a C4/Sf flare at 05/0808 UTC. This region has shown some

growth in area, extent and spot count in the last 24 hours.  The

delta magnetic configuration in the leader spot shows signs of

simplifying but the region maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic

classification.  Region 9937 (S09E42) has shown rapid growth over

the last 24 hours with area coverage more than doubling to 210

millionths and spot count is at 10.  Region 9929 (N22W53) continues

gradual growth.  Three new regions were numbered today:  Region 9941

(S22E09), Region 9942 (N22E34), and Region 9943 (S11E63).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate.  Region 9934 has the potential for M-class events.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Unsettled conditions are

expected due to the effects of a weak CME shock due to arrive early

on day one of the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

Class M    40/40/40

ClghtoX    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 May 180

Predicted   06 May-08 May  190/200/205

90 Day Mean        05 May 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  004/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  006/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  010/010-008/008-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/20/15

Minor storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/20/15

Minor storm           15/10/05

Major-severe storm    10/05/01