NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9445 (N24W16)
produced an M1/1f flare at 0856 UTC. This was the sole M-class event
during this mostly uneventful day. The region also generated a C6/Sf
flare a few hours later, attaining maximum at 1820 UTC. There are
currently eight spotted regions now visible, with 9445 and 9447
(N12W55) the most dominant. The limbs were quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to low to
moderate. Region 9445 may produce occasional M-class events during
the forecast interval.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field should be
unsettled for the next three days. There is a chance for brief
periods of active conditions due to a high speed solar wind stream
from an ill-defined coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 161
Predicted   06 May-08 May  150/145/140
90 Day Mean        05 May 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  010/008-010/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05