NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 March 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Mar 05 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated B- and C-class X-ray bursts occurred. Minor growth was noted within Regions 9366 (S25E00), 9368 (N26E08), 9370 (N09E28), and newly numbered Region 9371 (N21W51). However, all regions remained simply structured. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight to fair chance for an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active to (isolated) minor storm conditions occurred during the first half of the period due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity dropped to quiet to unsettled levels after 05/1200 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 06 March as coronal hole effects continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during the rest of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the period. III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Mar 156 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 155/155/160 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 020/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 015/015-008/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/15 Minor storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/30/20 Minor storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01
