NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 05 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z

to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  A B9 flare

(optically uncorrelated) occurred at 05/0534 UTC, this was the only

recorded flare of the period.  Several Type III radio sweeps

comprised the rest of the activity seen during the period.  Region

9845 (N17W60) saw a decrease in spot count but remained unchanged in

areal coverage.  Region 9851 (S06E02) has shown some growth in spot

coverage and magnetic complexity late in the period.  New Regions

9860 (S06E61) and 9861 (N07E66) were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels.  Region 9845 continues to be complex enough to possibly

produce an isolated M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.  High

speed stream effects of a large, recurrent coronal hole remains

geoeffective.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity

is expected to be at quiet to active conditions through day one of

the forecast period.  Due to coronal hole effects, minor storm

conditions may be possible at higher latitudes through day one as

well.  Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled

conditions.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Mar 172

Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  170/170/175

90 Day Mean        05 Mar 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  009/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  017/017

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  020/030-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/30/20

Minor storm           15/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                45/35/25

Minor storm           20/15/10

Major-severe storm    10/01/01