Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Mar 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
March 5, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 05 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A B9 flare
(optically uncorrelated) occurred at 05/0534 UTC, this was the only
recorded flare of the period. Several Type III radio sweeps
comprised the rest of the activity seen during the period. Region
9845 (N17W60) saw a decrease in spot count but remained unchanged in
areal coverage. Region 9851 (S06E02) has shown some growth in spot
coverage and magnetic complexity late in the period. New Regions
9860 (S06E61) and 9861 (N07E66) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9845 continues to be complex enough to possibly
produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High
speed stream effects of a large, recurrent coronal hole remains
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active conditions through day one of
the forecast period. Due to coronal hole effects, minor storm
conditions may be possible at higher latitudes through day one as
well. Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 172
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 170/170/175
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 017/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 020/030-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/35/25
Minor storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.