NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events
occurred during the period. An M1/Sf from Region 9484 (S05W20) at
04/2259 UTC, and an M2/2n from Region 9488 (S20E33) at 05/0451 UTC.
Region 9488 also produced an C9/Sn at 05/1421 UTC. Several CME's
were noted by the LASCO instrument during the period, but none
appear earth-directed. Region 9489 (N17E52) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
are possible on the second and third day of the period due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 153
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  160/160/165
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  004/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  008/008-012/010-012/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01