NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 05 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9773
(N13E52) produced an M1.9/1f flare at 05/1840 UTC and a number of
minor C-class flares.  Region 9767 (S22W03) produced only C-class
flares and has remained mostly unchanged since yesterday,
maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9773 and Region 9767 have the potential for
M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one period at unsettled
conditions.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started on
30/0245 UTC has ended at 04/2355 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  A weak shock from the C5/1f
event on 03/0220 UTC is expected to arrive midday on day one of the
period and could produce slight disturbances.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 212
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  210/210/205
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 221
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  008/012-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01