NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 9302
(N19E66) produced a C6/Sf at 1851 UTC, the day's largest event. This
region consists of bright plage and a few spots, although limb
proximity prohibits extensive white light analysis. Infrequent small
C-class events of uncertain origin were noted during the interval.
Region 9289 (S07W52) is the largest of the twelve spotted regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9302 seems capable of M-level activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled throughout the period. A weak response to a
high-speed solar wind stream may occur in the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 176
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 180/180/175
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 015/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05