NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jan 05 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 9302 (N19E66) produced a C6/Sf at 1851 UTC, the day's largest event. This region consists of bright plage and a few spots, although limb proximity prohibits extensive white light analysis. Infrequent small C-class events of uncertain origin were noted during the interval. Region 9289 (S07W52) is the largest of the twelve spotted regions. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9302 seems capable of M-level activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled throughout the period. A weak response to a high-speed solar wind stream may occur in the next 24 hours. III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan Class M 60/60/60 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Jan 176 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 015/010-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/10 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
