Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 5, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 9302
(N19E66) produced a C6/Sf at 1851 UTC, the day's largest event. This
region consists of bright plage and a few spots, although limb
proximity prohibits extensive white light analysis. Infrequent small
C-class events of uncertain origin were noted during the interval.
Region 9289 (S07W52) is the largest of the twelve spotted regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9302 seems capable of M-level activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled throughout the period. A weak response to a
high-speed solar wind stream may occur in the next 24 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 176
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  180/180/175
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  015/010-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.