NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9335 (N08E40) produced a
C8/1F at 05/1520Z. Minor centimetric radio bursts and a Type II
sweep accompanied this flare. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Regions 9327 (N19W73) and 9334 (N12E27). Moderate growth
in the size and complexity of Region 9339 (S11E62) was also noted.
New Region 9340 (S13E05) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M flare in Regions
9334 and 9339.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, as effects from a high speed
coronal hole stream are expected early in the three day period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 165
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb  168/170/175
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  010/007-007/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01