NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 December 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 9718 (S06W09)
produced two low level M-class events during the period.  New Region
9728 (N36W07) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There is a chance for a major flare from Region 9718.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 233
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  225/225/220
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  008/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  008/010-007/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01