NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Only low level C-class flares
have occurred through the period.  There are fourteen numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk with Region 9718 (S07W24) being
the largest at approximately 660 millionths and 34 spots.  Region
9727 (S21E42) has grown in area and spot count and is currently a
Dko beta-gamma-delta group with 14 spots.  Two new regions were
numbered today as Regions 9729 (N24E04) and 9730 (S13E49).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9718 is still capable of producing an isolated
major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 237
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  225/225/220
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01