NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  A long duration C1 X-ray
flare occurred at 05/1823Z. An examination of SOHO/EIT images
suggest that it originated from Region 9246 (S17E51).  The remainder
of the solar disk was mostly stable through the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet the past 24 hours.  One
period of active conditions was observed at mid latitudes at
04/2400Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 147
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05