NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Aug 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Aug 05 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at 05/1531 UTC. Subflares in Regions 9557 (S21W51) and 9566 (N17E08) occurred during the M-flare, contributing to the total X-ray flux of the event. These Regions also produced several C-class flares during the past day. Region 9563 (N23W07) produced C-class subflare activity as well. All of these sunspot groups continued to grow. New Regions 9569 (S18E10) and 9570 (S10E76) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9557, 9563, and 9566. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled becoming active to minor storm after 05/0600 UTC. The field was most disturbed from 05/0900-1200 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled by the second day of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Aug 156 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 015/015-015/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 02/02/02 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 02/02/02
