Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Aug 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
August 5, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at
05/1531 UTC. Subflares in Regions 9557 (S21W51) and 9566 (N17E08)
occurred during the M-flare, contributing to the total X-ray flux of
the event. These Regions also produced several C-class flares during
the past day. Region 9563 (N23W07) produced C-class subflare
activity as well. All of these sunspot groups continued to grow. New
Regions 9569 (S18E10) and 9570 (S10E76) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9557, 9563, and
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled becoming active to minor
storm after 05/0600 UTC. The field was most disturbed from
05/0900-1200 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the second day of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 156
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  160/165/165
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 149
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  020/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  015/015-015/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    02/02/02
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    02/02/02

SpaceRef staff editor.