NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 9636 (N13W70) and 9645
(S17W41) produced C2/Sf events early in the period.  Several Type
III radio sweeps and discrete frequency radio bursts made up the
rest of today's activity.  The partial halo CME seen on EIT imagery
yesterday appears to have been caused by a back-side source.  Region
9636 and Region 9641 (S13W19) both showed an increase area coverage
of their respective spot coverage today.  Three new groups were
numbered today, Region 9651 (S22W12), Region 9652 (N22E14), and
Region 9653 (S23E76).  Region 9653 has a penumbral spot that can be
seen rotating onto the east limb and has a latitude of that in which
old Region 9608 had as it departed the west limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Region 9636 and Region 9645 remain capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu. 
Flux levels remain above event level at time of bulletin issue.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods possible early on the first day of forecast period due to
CME passage.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     99/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 187
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 180
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  026/053
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  010/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01