NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 May 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 May 04 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9937 (S10E56)
produced a C9/Sf flare at 04/1338 UTC. Region 9934 (S17E35) has
remained relatively unchanged. It continues to be the most complex
region on the disk with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in
the leader spot. Region 9929 (N21W41) has shown the most change,
increasing in area, extent and spot count. Two new regions were
numbered today: Region 9939 (N16E67) and Region 9940 (N14E72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 has the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels with one period of
unsettled conditions (6-9 UTC) observed on the USGS Boulder
magnetometer.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The CME from a long
duration C6 event on 2 May is expected to arrive late on the first
day of the forecast period but no significant activity is expected.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M 35/35/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 190
Predicted 05 May-07 May 200/210/210
90 Day Mean 04 May 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
