NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event was a 
long-duration C4/Sf from Region 9447 (N14W41). Region 9447 grew in
area and spot count today, as well as developing into a more complex
Beta-Gamma magnetic classification. The only other active region of
note was 9445 (N25W04) which produced some optical subflares. One
region was numbered today: 9450 (S03W07).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Isolated
active periods are possible on the first day of the forecast period
due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 176
Predicted   05 May-07 May  170/165/160
90 Day Mean        04 May 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01