NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 March 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Isolated B- and C-class
X-ray flares occurred. Minor growth was observed in Regions 9366
(S25E13), 9368 (N26E20), and 9369 (N17W62); but all were small and
simply-structured. The remaining regions were small and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an isolated, low-level M-class
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly unsettled levels with an
isolated active period during 04/1500 - 1800 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. Brief active conditions will be possible during the first
two days due to weak coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 141
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 161
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  015/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  010/012-010/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01