NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 04 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9845
(N17W46) was the source of a few impulsive, weak C-class events.
This region retains its moderate size and magnetic complexity, but
has been relatively stable and has yet to produce any significant
flare activity. Three new regions were numbered today: 9857
(S04W58), 9858 (S30E05), and 9859 (S10E47).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist
at predominantly low levels. Region 9845 remains a possible source
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The onset of high speed
stream effects from a large, recurrent coronal hole was apparent
over the course of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active due to coronal hole effects for
the next 36-48 hours. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible
at higher latitudes. By day three of the forecast period, quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 175
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 170/165/175
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 020/020-020/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/45/35
Minor storm 15/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
