NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
9488 (S18E48) produced an M2/2b flare with associated tenflare of
210 sfu at 04/0812 UTC.  This region also produced several lesser
flares during the period, and now exhibits increased magnetic
complexity, currently in a Cko/beta-gamma configuration.  Another
event of note occurred in spotless Region 9474 (N22W64) at 04/1633
UTC, when a C3/Sf flare and associated Type-II radio sweep was
observed, along with a small, nearby  filament disappearance.  Some
enhancement in 10MeV proton flux was observed following this event,
indicating a well-connected location for this activity, though not
expected to result in a proton event.  CME activity was observed in
association with today's events, but not appearing earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.  Region 9488 is a likely source
of more M-class activity as it continues to develop, along with
Region 9484 (S06W06), which remains magnetically complex and capable
of producing moderate flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated
active period at higher latitudes during 04/0000-0300 UTC.  Coronal
hole high speed stream effects appeared to end at about 0700 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first two days
of the period.  There is a chance for development of coronal hole
effects with isolated active periods possible beginning on day
three.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 154
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  160/160/165
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  006/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/008-005/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01