NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 June 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9488 (S18E48) produced an M2/2b flare with associated tenflare of
210 sfu at 04/0812 UTC. This region also produced several lesser
flares during the period, and now exhibits increased magnetic
complexity, currently in a Cko/beta-gamma configuration. Another
event of note occurred in spotless Region 9474 (N22W64) at 04/1633
UTC, when a C3/Sf flare and associated Type-II radio sweep was
observed, along with a small, nearby filament disappearance. Some
enhancement in 10MeV proton flux was observed following this event,
indicating a well-connected location for this activity, though not
expected to result in a proton event. CME activity was observed in
association with today's events, but not appearing earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Region 9488 is a likely source
of more M-class activity as it continues to develop, along with
Region 9484 (S06W06), which remains magnetically complex and capable
of producing moderate flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated
active period at higher latitudes during 04/0000-0300 UTC. Coronal
hole high speed stream effects appeared to end at about 0700 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first two days
of the period. There is a chance for development of coronal hole
effects with isolated active periods possible beginning on day
three.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 154
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 006/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01