NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 July 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Only one optically
uncorrelated B-class x-ray flare occurred during the period.  All
regions on the visible disk remain small and magnetically simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 127
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  130/130/135
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01