NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Activity was at moderate levels.  New Region 9773
(N14E64) was numbered today.  This region produced an M1/Sf flare at
04/1749 UTC.  Region 9773 also produced a C3 flare at 04/0952 UTC
with an associated eruptive prominence and Type II radio sweep (537
km/s).  SOHO/LASCO imagery does not indicate an Earth directed
component.  Region 9767 (S22E08) produced a minor C6/Sf flare at
04/2304 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9767 has the potential for M class events.  New
Region 9773 is rotating onto the northeast limb and  is showing
signs of increased activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The Geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The >10 MeV proton event
that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in progress,  peak flux was 108
pfu at 31/1620 UTC.  Stratwarm conditions remains in effect.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active.  Quiet levels are expected on the
first day of the period.  A shock arrival from a C5/1f on 03/0220
UTC event is expected to arrive midday on day two of the period.  
By day three activity is expected to return to unsettled levels. 
The >10 MeV proton event is expected to end late today or early on
day one of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     99/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 218
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  215/210/210
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 220
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  005/008-008/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/15
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01