Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 4, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 03/2355 UTC. Images from the SOHO spacecraft suggest that the
source of this flare was from just beyond the northeast limb near
NE25. Small C-class flares also occurred, including a C3/Sf at
04/2008 UTC in Region 9289 (S07W38) and a C2/Sf at 04/1914 UTC in
newly numbered Region 9301 (N07E73). New Regions 9297 (N24W16), 9298
(S22W04), 9299 (N09E39), and 9300 (S14E55) were also numbered. All
of the new active regions appear relatively small and simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class subflares are expected to continue and a chance
of an isolated M-class flare exists. The most likely source of the
M-class activity remains the active region just beyond the northeast
limb. This area will probably begin rotating into view within the
next 24 hours.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 175
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  175/175/175
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.