NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 04 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z

to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9809

(S06E16) produced two M-class flares during the period.  The largest

was an M2 x-ray flare at 04/0602 UTC, an M1 followed shortly

thereafter, at 04/0658 UTC.  Both of these flares were optically

correlated using SOHO/EIT and Culgoora Solar Observatory data.

Region 9802 (S14W44) produced a C7/Sf flare at 04/1909 UTC along

with several other smaller C-class flares throughout the period.

This region also grew in penumbral coverage since yesterday and is

an Fki beta-gamma-delta complex.  Region 9800 (N10W73) has continued

to decay as it nears the west limb.  Numerous minor and significant

Type III radio sweeps were observed today.  Newly numbered Region

9816 (S13W33) is showing rapid growth in spot areal coverage and

produced a Sf flare at 04/0438 UTC.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low to moderate levels.  Region 9802 may yet produce an isolated

major flare before exiting the west limb.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity

is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the

forecast.  Active conditions may be expected due to the effects of a

large transequatorial coronal hole for days two and three of the

forecast.  Additionally, a slight chance of isolated minor storm

levels could occur at higher latitudes.

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

Class M    60/60/50

Class X    10/10/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           04 Feb 235

Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb  230/225/215

90 Day Mean        04 Feb 225

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  004/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-010/015-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/20/30

Minor storm           05/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/30/40

Minor storm           05/15/15

Major-severe storm    01/05/05