NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  All regions remained
stable through the period.  New Region 9256 (S16E65) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 152
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  150/150/145
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05