NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 4 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 04 2350 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2001
***** CORRECTED COPY *****
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C9 flare and CME on the SE limb. The associated active region
is just now rotating into view. Region 9563 (N23E05) continues to
grow and produced an impulsive C7/Sf at 04/0949Z. The most
impressive development of the period was the growth in Region 9557
(S21W37). This region developed from an area of approximately 50
millionths of white light area yesterday to nearly 500 millionths
today. The extensive development of the penumbral field appears to
almost encompass the 20+ sunspots. Small C-class activity was also
observed in Region 9566 (N17E22).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The chance for M-class activity has certainly increased
with the development in Region 9557 and the activity on the SE limb.
Region 9563, which produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare early on 3
August, still has good potential for a low M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 148
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug  155/160/160
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 148
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  010/018-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01