NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 31 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 9682 (N11W10)
produced an M3/1n event at 31/0809 UTC.  This region has an Ekc spot
classification and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.  Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 9685
(N05E68) and 9686 (N16E68).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There is a continued possibility for a major flare
from Region 9682.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  A weak shock was
observed on the ACE spacecraft at 31/1253 UTC, followed by a 6 nt
sudden impulse at 31/1352 UTC observed on the Boulder magnetometer.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on November 1 resulting from a CME observed on October 29.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 221
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  210/200/195
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 203
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  010/015-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01