NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 31 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the
past day was an M1/1F at 31/1055 UTC in Region 9885 (N10E14). This
area remains the largest sunspot group on the disk but appears to be
simplifying. Regions 9886 (N11E30) and 9887 (N01E37) also generated
small flares. New Region 9889 (S20E48) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9885 may produce another M-class flare as it decays
further. A low-level M-flare is also possible in Region 9887.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The field remains
under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels for the next 24-48
hours. Activity should return to quiet to unsettled conditions by
the end of the forecast period as the coronal hole influence
diminishes.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 60/50/40
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 204
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 200/195/190
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 204
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 016/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 018/015-018/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/50/30
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 60/60/40
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
