NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 31 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Isolated B- and C-class
subflares occurred. Region 9561 (S12E49) was the most active of the
visible regions, but showed no significant changes during the
period. A couple large filaments erupted from the south-central
portion of the disk early in the period. New Region 9563 (N24E57)
was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels due to
coronal hole effects.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on the first day decreasing
to quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 117
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 150
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  018/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  012/015-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01