Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
January 31, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 31 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. An M3.6 flare
occurred at 31/1444 UTC from Region 9787 (S07 on the west limb).
Region 9800 (N07W18) and Region 9802 (S16E09) produced minor C-class
flares. Region 9802 continues to grow and now has an
Ekc/Beta-gamma-delta class, area of 650 millionths, 49 spots, and a
13 degree extent. Region 9800 has shown little change in the last
24 hours. Two new Regions were numbered today: Region 9808
(N15E54) and Region 9809 (S06E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the
potential for producing major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 65/65/60
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 243
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 240/240/235
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.