NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jan 31 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z

to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  An M3.6 flare

occurred at 31/1444 UTC from Region 9787 (S07 on the west limb).

Region 9800 (N07W18) and Region 9802 (S16E09) produced minor C-class

flares.  Region 9802 continues to grow and now has an

Ekc/Beta-gamma-delta class, area of 650 millionths, 49 spots, and a

13 degree extent.  Region 9800 has shown little change in the last

24 hours.  Two new Regions were numbered today:  Region 9808

(N15E54) and Region 9809 (S06E68).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low to moderate levels.  Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the

potential for producing major events.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

Class M    65/65/60

Class X    15/15/10

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           31 Jan 243

Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  240/240/235

90 Day Mean        31 Jan 225

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  001/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01