NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 31 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The greatest activity of
note was an optically uncorrelated C2 flare at 30/2237 UTC.  A
bright surge on the disk near spotless region 9216 (S15W84) was also
observed at 31/1536 UTC, but with only minor accompanying x-ray
enhancement.  Region 9330 (N26E57) has rotated into full view as the
largest region on the disk (230 millionths coverage in white light,
in an Eao-Beta configuration), but produced no activity of note
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with only isolated chances for moderate activity 
during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. 
Shock passage associated with the CME of January 28 was observed at
the ACE satellite at 31/0742 UTC, with a subsequent sudden impulse
(17 nT) observed at Boulder at 31/0803 UTC.  Unsettled to active
conditions have predominated since, with an isolated period of
minor storming recorded for higher latitudes during 31/0900-1200
UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through February 1,
reducing to quiet to unsettled levels for February 2-3.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 153
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01