NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 31 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. Region 9601 (N14E32) produced an M1/Sn
event with an accompanying 270 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio
sweep (velocity est. 961 km/s) at 30/1042 UTC. LASCO imagery does
not show any signs of an earth-directed coronal mass ejection from
this event. Region 9601 has continued to show growth over the period
and is capable of producing a major flare at any time. Region 9591
(S20W39) has shown some signs of minor decay during the period. It
continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is
still capable of producing an isolated major flare before it rotates
over the western limb on September 04-05. There are only three other
spotted regions on the disk at this time. None of which have
produced any significant activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9591 and 9601 are expected to continue to
produce isolated M-class events and both are capable of producing a
major flare during the forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with recurrent coronal hole effects
beginning on 01 September. Barring any earth-directed coronal mass
ejections, conditions should return to mostly quiet to unsettled on
03 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 189
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep  190/190/190
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 156
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  015/015-015/025-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01