NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 31 Aug 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 31 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. Region 9601 (N14E32) produced an M1/Sn
event with an accompanying 270 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio
sweep (velocity est. 961 km/s) at 30/1042 UTC. LASCO imagery does
not show any signs of an earth-directed coronal mass ejection from
this event. Region 9601 has continued to show growth over the period
and is capable of producing a major flare at any time. Region 9591
(S20W39) has shown some signs of minor decay during the period. It
continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is
still capable of producing an isolated major flare before it rotates
over the western limb on September 04-05. There are only three other
spotted regions on the disk at this time. None of which have
produced any significant activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9591 and 9601 are expected to continue to
produce isolated M-class events and both are capable of producing a
major flare during the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with recurrent coronal hole effects
beginning on 01 September. Barring any earth-directed coronal mass
ejections, conditions should return to mostly quiet to unsettled on
03 September.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 189
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 190/190/190
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/015-015/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01