NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 9682 (N12E04)
has continued to produce high C-class and low M-class events during
the period.  The largest was an M3/1n at 30/0836 UTC.  The region
continues to grow in area, sunspot count, and magnetic complexity. 
A long duration C9 event occurred at 30/2032 UTC.  SXI images
indicate the possible source being a CME from behind the southeast
limb of the sun.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  A major flare is possible from Region 9682.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 226
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov  205/200/195
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 202
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  018/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-010/015-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01