NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9718
(S07E42) produced an M3/1n at 30/0106 UTC.  Sympathetic flares were
observed on NOAA/SXI test imagery between Region 9718 and Region
9720 (S18E46).   Region 9715 (N05W11) remains magnetically complex
with some small growth and produced three C-class flares.  A
disappearing filament occurred just northeast of Region 9715, near
N18E17 at 30/0305 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 9715, Region 9718 and Region 9720 have the
potential for producing M-class flares.  Region 9715 has the
potential for an X-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  A minor transient passed
the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 30/1728 UTC resulting in a 5 nT
deflection in the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1809 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  The CME shock from
the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to reach Earth mid day on the
first day, producing active conditions late on day one and into day
two of the period.  Minor storm conditions are possible at the
higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 226
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  215/220/220
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  012/015-020/030-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/30
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/10/01