NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Nov 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events
occurred -- an M1 at 0925 UTC, and recently an M1 at 2038 UTC.
Region 9246 (S12E19) produced subfaint optical flares corresponding
to the x-ray bursts. This region has grown in white light and
h-alpha throughout the period, and is the most volatile region of
the ten on the disk. Two new regions were born on the disk, 9248
(N04W17) and 9249 (N11E45). Region 9236 (N20W89) is making an
uneventful west limb passage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9246 should produce occasional M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 192
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  190/185/180
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  032/052
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05