NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 30 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9885 (N11E27)
produced the largest flare of the day, an M3/1n at 30/1301 UTC. This
is the largest, most complex area presently on the disk and also
produced several C-class subflares throughout the day. Regions 9884
(S19E02) and 9887 (N01E51) also generated subflare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9885 is expected to produce additional M-class
activity and may generate an isolated X-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock was
observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at about 29/2140 UTC and was
followed by a 31 nT Sudden Impulse at Boulder at 29/2237 UTC. This
activity is presumed to be associated with the trans-equatorial
coronal hole mentioned yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels for the duration of
the 3-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 189
Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 190/195/195
90 Day Mean 30 Mar 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 018/015-018/015-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/50/30
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 60/60/60
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
