NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Jan 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 30 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar Activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated very impulsive C7 flare at 30/1639
UTC. Region 9802 (S17E22) has shown rapid growth within the last
24 hours. Spot count has nearly doubled to 41 and area has increase
to 510 millionths. The large intermediate spot shows delta mixing,
resulting in a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration for the
region. Region 9800 (N08W03) has simplified to a beta-gamma
magnetic class but otherwise remains unchanged. One new region was
numbered today: Region 9807 (S27E74).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to at low
to moderate levels. Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the potential
for isolated major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 256
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 255/250/245
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
